June 13, 2010
On Global Warming
I've been meaning to do a post like this for a while...
When people talk about global warming, the legitimacy of the science backing it, etc., they're talking about several different issues and questions all rolled into one. They are these:
1) There are difficulties with temperature measurements. We don't have the luxury of being able to directly measure temperatures from a hundred years ago, or fifty years ago. (Or even five minutes ago, though we do a pretty good job of direct observation these days, so our recent records can be taken as essentially accurate.) Early temperature records were often taken inconsistently, with poor-quality instruments, over only a fraction of the area we might be interested in. Beyond that, we're forced to rely on proxies, such as ice cores and tree-ring data, that don't correlate all that well with actual temperatures.
2) On top of that, the data sets that we've been using for global warming analysis have been normalized in processes that are, well, shall we say not entirely transparent and well-documented? Now, this isn't necessarily instant evidence that they were falsified by crazed global warming activists who want to seize control of all industrial activity (they won't show up for a few sections!) But it does limit the usefulness of those data sets when it comes to analyzing the climate. We're studying a very complex system with relatively poor tools. We know that there are cycles that we only poorly understand, and we suspect that there are additional cycles that we don't understand at all (and we are absolutely sure that there's one big ice age-temperate cycle that we can't even describe properly). Data that's been normalized, especially data that's been normalized by hand, reduces our ability to accommodate questions regarding these cycles. Oh, we need to take into account El Nino-based warming? But do we need to apply that correction across the board, or have some of our observations already been Nino-corrected? Double-correcting is as bad as ignoring it; worse, because then we may think we have reached a solid conclusion when we have not.
3) There are limits to the resolution and utility of computer modeling of a complex system. I'm regularly astounded by encounters with individuals who believe that the computer models are modeling actual, physical processes that are understood in their entirety by the scientists creating the model; in short, they don't understand the difference between the sort of observation a physicist might make in a lab, and the output of a statistical model that takes topographical and temperature data as inputs to approximate weather processes that we can't model in the micro sense, much less the macro sense. In this sense, the models' failure to correctly model the relative temperature stability of the last decade should at least be troubling. Yes, okay, I'm willing to grant that the last decade might be an anomaly in the context of a gradual increase of temperature, but it's not like the models were predicting the anomaly; even now they can't really account for why the expected warming didn't happen, without applying a pretty big fudge factor to account for it without actually explaining it. To the extent that reality doesn't conform to your model, that suggests your model is faulty!
4) On top of that, the models that predict catastrophic warming in the next century do so mostly through the assumption of certain positive feedback loops (event A promotes B, B promotes A, A promotes more of B, etc.) The problem that you run into here is that positive feedback loops don't tend to result in broadly stable systems; if warming tended to suddenly result in a lot more warming, we have to explain why things haven't spiraled into disaster areas when those events have occurred in the past. (Yes, we've been warmer in the past. One can argue that we haven't had as much atmospheric CO2 in the past to go with that warmth, but the CO2 isn't generally involved in the feedback loop. Rate of change arguments don't really have a lot to do with this either - those have more to deal with habitat than climate.)
5) The computer models use pretty loose statistical standards of evidence (mostly 90% confidence levels). Granted that it's not like they can fire up their office mini-Gaea to run experiments. But if you move the error bars up to 95% or so, your error bars get big enough to include the null hypothesis (i.e. they suggest but don't prove warming). Keep in mind that those error bars have nothing to do with the previous sections - they reflect the chance that, if the underlying models are sound, that the statistical analysis is just flat wrong.
6) CO2 emissions can't be limited by country; they call it "global" warming for a reason. Emissions which occur in China or India have the same effect as emissions from your backyard. Thus, taking action country by country to limit emissions is worthless - to the extent that industry can relocate to regions without a CO2-emission legal limit, it does. This has certainly been the experience of Europe under the Kyoto treaty. In fact, arguably it could even make the problem worse, if the industry that relocates is then powered by less-efficient hydrocarbon-burning plants, characteristic of developing nations. (Does nobody remember the fuss with Beijing, smog, and the '08 Olympics?)
7) The chances of getting India or China to agree to an international system of emissions control is significantly less than zero. Well, it's no surprise. India and China have tremendous populations still mired in subsistence farming; these populations need access to energy and industrial goods in order to modernize. For them, the worst-case scenarios presented by global warming activists aren't nearly bad as "just do what you're doing now for the next 50 years". (Subsistence farming -sucks-!) Should we come up with a magic-bullet solution, that allows us to generate the power we need without setting fire to a hydrocarbon, doubtless they will agree to go along (probably asking for significant subsidies to help them make the conversion, but meh.)
8) It's not a magic bullet, but we do have a method of producing significant electric power without burning hydrocarbons; it's called nuclear fission. It works with current technology, it has a good safety record (especially if you discount Russian engineering design, and if you compare it to the radioactive emissions caused by, say, coal plants). France has embraced nuclear fission as a source of the majority of its domestic electricity and had no problems for decades. The failure of global warming activists to embrace nuclear energy is, well... illustrative, and has a lot to say about the objectives of a lot of those who fall under that umbrella.
ALL of these segments are independent of each other, more or less. We could perfectly resolve the political situations, but if the original data is sufficiently crappy, so too the science based on it. The data could be perfect, but fed into statistical models that just aren't up to the modeling job. The models could be predicting today perfectly, but the positive feedback mechanisms that they've posited for the future might simply not work that way. The science could be 100% flawless, but good luck convincing a Chinese peasant that because of that, his family should starve in the next famine.
Sorry that I went on a bit of a political/scientific jag there. Holiday from Haruhi DVD subtitle formatting (damn you, Minoru Shiraishi!)
When people talk about global warming, the legitimacy of the science backing it, etc., they're talking about several different issues and questions all rolled into one. They are these:
1) There are difficulties with temperature measurements. We don't have the luxury of being able to directly measure temperatures from a hundred years ago, or fifty years ago. (Or even five minutes ago, though we do a pretty good job of direct observation these days, so our recent records can be taken as essentially accurate.) Early temperature records were often taken inconsistently, with poor-quality instruments, over only a fraction of the area we might be interested in. Beyond that, we're forced to rely on proxies, such as ice cores and tree-ring data, that don't correlate all that well with actual temperatures.
2) On top of that, the data sets that we've been using for global warming analysis have been normalized in processes that are, well, shall we say not entirely transparent and well-documented? Now, this isn't necessarily instant evidence that they were falsified by crazed global warming activists who want to seize control of all industrial activity (they won't show up for a few sections!) But it does limit the usefulness of those data sets when it comes to analyzing the climate. We're studying a very complex system with relatively poor tools. We know that there are cycles that we only poorly understand, and we suspect that there are additional cycles that we don't understand at all (and we are absolutely sure that there's one big ice age-temperate cycle that we can't even describe properly). Data that's been normalized, especially data that's been normalized by hand, reduces our ability to accommodate questions regarding these cycles. Oh, we need to take into account El Nino-based warming? But do we need to apply that correction across the board, or have some of our observations already been Nino-corrected? Double-correcting is as bad as ignoring it; worse, because then we may think we have reached a solid conclusion when we have not.
3) There are limits to the resolution and utility of computer modeling of a complex system. I'm regularly astounded by encounters with individuals who believe that the computer models are modeling actual, physical processes that are understood in their entirety by the scientists creating the model; in short, they don't understand the difference between the sort of observation a physicist might make in a lab, and the output of a statistical model that takes topographical and temperature data as inputs to approximate weather processes that we can't model in the micro sense, much less the macro sense. In this sense, the models' failure to correctly model the relative temperature stability of the last decade should at least be troubling. Yes, okay, I'm willing to grant that the last decade might be an anomaly in the context of a gradual increase of temperature, but it's not like the models were predicting the anomaly; even now they can't really account for why the expected warming didn't happen, without applying a pretty big fudge factor to account for it without actually explaining it. To the extent that reality doesn't conform to your model, that suggests your model is faulty!
4) On top of that, the models that predict catastrophic warming in the next century do so mostly through the assumption of certain positive feedback loops (event A promotes B, B promotes A, A promotes more of B, etc.) The problem that you run into here is that positive feedback loops don't tend to result in broadly stable systems; if warming tended to suddenly result in a lot more warming, we have to explain why things haven't spiraled into disaster areas when those events have occurred in the past. (Yes, we've been warmer in the past. One can argue that we haven't had as much atmospheric CO2 in the past to go with that warmth, but the CO2 isn't generally involved in the feedback loop. Rate of change arguments don't really have a lot to do with this either - those have more to deal with habitat than climate.)
5) The computer models use pretty loose statistical standards of evidence (mostly 90% confidence levels). Granted that it's not like they can fire up their office mini-Gaea to run experiments. But if you move the error bars up to 95% or so, your error bars get big enough to include the null hypothesis (i.e. they suggest but don't prove warming). Keep in mind that those error bars have nothing to do with the previous sections - they reflect the chance that, if the underlying models are sound, that the statistical analysis is just flat wrong.
6) CO2 emissions can't be limited by country; they call it "global" warming for a reason. Emissions which occur in China or India have the same effect as emissions from your backyard. Thus, taking action country by country to limit emissions is worthless - to the extent that industry can relocate to regions without a CO2-emission legal limit, it does. This has certainly been the experience of Europe under the Kyoto treaty. In fact, arguably it could even make the problem worse, if the industry that relocates is then powered by less-efficient hydrocarbon-burning plants, characteristic of developing nations. (Does nobody remember the fuss with Beijing, smog, and the '08 Olympics?)
7) The chances of getting India or China to agree to an international system of emissions control is significantly less than zero. Well, it's no surprise. India and China have tremendous populations still mired in subsistence farming; these populations need access to energy and industrial goods in order to modernize. For them, the worst-case scenarios presented by global warming activists aren't nearly bad as "just do what you're doing now for the next 50 years". (Subsistence farming -sucks-!) Should we come up with a magic-bullet solution, that allows us to generate the power we need without setting fire to a hydrocarbon, doubtless they will agree to go along (probably asking for significant subsidies to help them make the conversion, but meh.)
8) It's not a magic bullet, but we do have a method of producing significant electric power without burning hydrocarbons; it's called nuclear fission. It works with current technology, it has a good safety record (especially if you discount Russian engineering design, and if you compare it to the radioactive emissions caused by, say, coal plants). France has embraced nuclear fission as a source of the majority of its domestic electricity and had no problems for decades. The failure of global warming activists to embrace nuclear energy is, well... illustrative, and has a lot to say about the objectives of a lot of those who fall under that umbrella.
ALL of these segments are independent of each other, more or less. We could perfectly resolve the political situations, but if the original data is sufficiently crappy, so too the science based on it. The data could be perfect, but fed into statistical models that just aren't up to the modeling job. The models could be predicting today perfectly, but the positive feedback mechanisms that they've posited for the future might simply not work that way. The science could be 100% flawless, but good luck convincing a Chinese peasant that because of that, his family should starve in the next famine.
Sorry that I went on a bit of a political/scientific jag there. Holiday from Haruhi DVD subtitle formatting (damn you, Minoru Shiraishi!)
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May 24, 2010
Endless H8 continues
Leaving aside the issue of the commercial wisdom of Endless Eight, they're actually doing interesting things with the cinematography.
One of the manifestations of this is in the wardrobes. Not only did they re-animate each episode, but the characters aren't wearing the same things - and that's something that takes some extra work, since you have to build up a new character model for each outfit. As it is, it adds to the believability if outfits are largely determined by what the character happened to grab out of the closet that day.
However, they overdid it a little. It makes sense that the day-to-day wardrobes are going to vary. It makes sense that Haruhi's taste in yukata choice is somewhat arbitrary and can turn out differently depending on what she had for breakfast that day. But while we can assume some variety in the closets and in the yukata store, the characters shouldn't have that many different swimsuits. How many bikinis does Haruhi own, anyway?
It's also notable that they've gone to the trouble to throw in some Kyonservice for the ladies; he's posing like a shirtless Calvin Klein model at a couple of points. Dunno, personally I don't swing that way, but maybe someone's enjoying it.
The episodes are still a pain in the butt to work on (too much similar dialogue...), but eh, what can ya do?
One of the manifestations of this is in the wardrobes. Not only did they re-animate each episode, but the characters aren't wearing the same things - and that's something that takes some extra work, since you have to build up a new character model for each outfit. As it is, it adds to the believability if outfits are largely determined by what the character happened to grab out of the closet that day.
However, they overdid it a little. It makes sense that the day-to-day wardrobes are going to vary. It makes sense that Haruhi's taste in yukata choice is somewhat arbitrary and can turn out differently depending on what she had for breakfast that day. But while we can assume some variety in the closets and in the yukata store, the characters shouldn't have that many different swimsuits. How many bikinis does Haruhi own, anyway?
It's also notable that they've gone to the trouble to throw in some Kyonservice for the ladies; he's posing like a shirtless Calvin Klein model at a couple of points. Dunno, personally I don't swing that way, but maybe someone's enjoying it.
The episodes are still a pain in the butt to work on (too much similar dialogue...), but eh, what can ya do?
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May 22, 2010
Endless H8
Sigh... I don't know what's worse, the repeating episodes, or working with MP4 video.
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May 05, 2010
Note to self: post more than once a month
April turned out to be busy. A wedding to attend in Mobile, lots of car repair stuff, etc. Molars are all healed up, though, so that's one less thing to worry about. And I finished painting another squad of orks... so that's 20 down and well over 100 to go. Heh.
Been watching a real mix of anime lately. Rewatched most of Moyashimon the other night. Been keeping up with Ichiban Ushiro no Daimaou for silly, and finished Hanamaru Kindergarten, but I haven't really tucked into anything new lately. Still need to finish the back end of Railgun, too...
Been watching a real mix of anime lately. Rewatched most of Moyashimon the other night. Been keeping up with Ichiban Ushiro no Daimaou for silly, and finished Hanamaru Kindergarten, but I haven't really tucked into anything new lately. Still need to finish the back end of Railgun, too...
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April 02, 2010
The Power of Positive Painkillers
Against all expectations, I'm not hurting. It probably hurts less now than it did before I got the teeth cut out...
Of course, I'm also just a little loopy (not tremendously, but maybe two drinks short of sober) and I'm really not up to eating anything crunchy, heh. But I was braced for much worse than this - the last time I helped someone out after they had wisdom teeth out, he was literally pounding the walls because of how much he hurt. I've always had a good pain tolerance, though, thank goodness.
Update: Was loopy enough not to hit "post" above. A few hours later, pain medication still doing the trick pretty well. Spent a lovely evening with my dear mother, working on a jigsaw puzzle.
Should be back up and running by Monday
Of course, I'm also just a little loopy (not tremendously, but maybe two drinks short of sober) and I'm really not up to eating anything crunchy, heh. But I was braced for much worse than this - the last time I helped someone out after they had wisdom teeth out, he was literally pounding the walls because of how much he hurt. I've always had a good pain tolerance, though, thank goodness.
Update: Was loopy enough not to hit "post" above. A few hours later, pain medication still doing the trick pretty well. Spent a lovely evening with my dear mother, working on a jigsaw puzzle.
Should be back up and running by Monday
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March 31, 2010
Tooth or dare
Going in Friday to have my wisdom teeth removed. One of the buggers came in crooked and is busily cutting up my cheek every time I open my mouth wide... This weekend will probably be spent uncomfortably healing.
As if I didn't have enough hobby stuff going on, Steven reminded me that Civ 4 was a load of fun, so I got it reinstalled. I had always backed significantly off the video quality in order to get everything to run smoothly; with the new hardware, I can set it "max everything", -windowed-, and it runs completely smoothly.
Diplomatic strategy plays a much bigger role in Civ4 than it did earlier on in the series. Technology trading is still important, to be sure, but the religion aspect throws a monkey wrench in traditional strategies. You can help pacify otherwise-aggressive neighbors by spreading your religion to them. More problematically, most civs will declare the first religion they get as their "state religion" - there's benefits to having one, especially early on - and they hang on to that one like grim death. It can be easier for you to convert yourself to their religion instead!
Interesting week in EVE, as a new large-scale conflict kicks off; a motley group of alliances is conducting an offensive against the Northern Coalition, mostly for the crime of being steeenking rich and out of boredom. Hostilities weren't due to start until tomorrow, but the attackers were moving their main capital fleet as a single unit (and essentially unscreened - there's a limit to how many ships you can have in a single system in EVE before the server hardware starts screaming).
Somehow, either through infiltration or just good scouting, the NC got wind of the move, and dropped a strong attack fleet with a full support element on the capital convoy. Only five percent of the attacking capitals were destroyed before the overloaded system node crashed completely, and the attackers (they need to get some clever name so that it's easier to refer to them!) wisely stayed logged out rather than attempting to log back in to a busy node chock full of attacking capital ships and screen.
A note about EVE combat - since every ship in the game is fitted with short-range faster-than-light drives for in-system travel, one of the major challenges in combat is to keep your opponent from using that drive. (It's not instantaneous, and you can't maneuver in mid-jump, but by the time your opponent figures out where you went, you can be on your way somewhere else...) The necessary modules that create warp disruption effects or fields are rarely mounted on capital-class vessels (which are huge and slow and expensive as hell), since usually capitals operate in conjunction with screening elements which are more suited to that role. Without interdictors and heavy interdictors in their screen, the attacking fleet couldn't prevent the NC capitals from breaking off action when heavily damaged, whereas the NC attackers had the necessary vessels to lock down individual attacking capitals and pound them until they popped.
The corporation I'm a member of is a client of one of the major NC members, so this is cause to celebrate. It's also one hell of a morale hit for the attackers - even before things got underway, they were already faced with system overload, un-fun levels of lag, significant casualties, and a big disruption to their timetable. Morale's important in these things, because large-scale wars tend to turn into grinding attritional battles; both sides are wealthy enough to absorb big losses, but the power to continue the offensive is also largely based on the ability to keep pilots showing up on a regular basis... bored or frustrated pilots find other things to do with their spare time.
As if I didn't have enough hobby stuff going on, Steven reminded me that Civ 4 was a load of fun, so I got it reinstalled. I had always backed significantly off the video quality in order to get everything to run smoothly; with the new hardware, I can set it "max everything", -windowed-, and it runs completely smoothly.
Diplomatic strategy plays a much bigger role in Civ4 than it did earlier on in the series. Technology trading is still important, to be sure, but the religion aspect throws a monkey wrench in traditional strategies. You can help pacify otherwise-aggressive neighbors by spreading your religion to them. More problematically, most civs will declare the first religion they get as their "state religion" - there's benefits to having one, especially early on - and they hang on to that one like grim death. It can be easier for you to convert yourself to their religion instead!
Interesting week in EVE, as a new large-scale conflict kicks off; a motley group of alliances is conducting an offensive against the Northern Coalition, mostly for the crime of being steeenking rich and out of boredom. Hostilities weren't due to start until tomorrow, but the attackers were moving their main capital fleet as a single unit (and essentially unscreened - there's a limit to how many ships you can have in a single system in EVE before the server hardware starts screaming).
Somehow, either through infiltration or just good scouting, the NC got wind of the move, and dropped a strong attack fleet with a full support element on the capital convoy. Only five percent of the attacking capitals were destroyed before the overloaded system node crashed completely, and the attackers (they need to get some clever name so that it's easier to refer to them!) wisely stayed logged out rather than attempting to log back in to a busy node chock full of attacking capital ships and screen.
A note about EVE combat - since every ship in the game is fitted with short-range faster-than-light drives for in-system travel, one of the major challenges in combat is to keep your opponent from using that drive. (It's not instantaneous, and you can't maneuver in mid-jump, but by the time your opponent figures out where you went, you can be on your way somewhere else...) The necessary modules that create warp disruption effects or fields are rarely mounted on capital-class vessels (which are huge and slow and expensive as hell), since usually capitals operate in conjunction with screening elements which are more suited to that role. Without interdictors and heavy interdictors in their screen, the attacking fleet couldn't prevent the NC capitals from breaking off action when heavily damaged, whereas the NC attackers had the necessary vessels to lock down individual attacking capitals and pound them until they popped.
The corporation I'm a member of is a client of one of the major NC members, so this is cause to celebrate. It's also one hell of a morale hit for the attackers - even before things got underway, they were already faced with system overload, un-fun levels of lag, significant casualties, and a big disruption to their timetable. Morale's important in these things, because large-scale wars tend to turn into grinding attritional battles; both sides are wealthy enough to absorb big losses, but the power to continue the offensive is also largely based on the ability to keep pilots showing up on a regular basis... bored or frustrated pilots find other things to do with their spare time.
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March 21, 2010
Had to check my calendar again
It's snowing. It's technically spring. I'm just a little disturbed. (I did, however, go outside and throw a snowball, just to have done it.)
I've been having a hobby overload lately. Plenty of games to play (between EVE, Crysis, FF13, and the Dawn of War expansion, I'm spending a lot of time playing). I've got a pile of books to read. I've got a small army of orks to paint, build, and otherwise fool with. There's... not actually a ton of anime to watch this season, but I've been letting it build up, and there are several series I want to go through yet haven't found the time to.
Add to this about 10 hours of overtime a week, and my schedule is loaded fairly heavily.
I enjoyed EVE well enough back in the day, but quit when I got tired of puttering around in high-security space (where there's not much to do but mine and run fairly-uninspiring missions) and getting shot at by pirates in low-security space (a nearly-deserted ghetto where players can hunt other players but not claim territory). A friend got me back into it, and I resolved this time to attempt to play in 0.0 space (the "way out there" territories where there are no laws or rules but those enforced by players). Good decision - joining up with a 0.0 corp gives even some of the boring stuff like mining or shipping goods around an extra frisson of excitement. And the profit margins out there are high enough that you can absorb the occasional ship loss, so long as you're not some kind of Norse berserker pilot.
FF13 is interesting so far, if very firmly set on rails. The characters are somewhat hit and miss (Vanille I would happily drown, for example), but Lightning is working for me, precisely because she is not nice. Extremely not nice. She doesn't like the other characters and lets them know it (sometimes with rejoinders that aren't so much jerky as "downright hurtful".) But she's not some kind of super-tsundere, just an unhappy loner. I was worried that Hope was going to be a Shinji all game long, but he pulled his head out long enough to decide on something to do (even if it's extraordinarily stupid, but what hey, even he knows that). Sazh is just fun.
Enjoyed a few episodes of Hanamaru Kindergarten; it's shocking how you can take a creepy concept like Kodomo no Jikan, throw in some Potemayo, and get something good out of it. Think I'll watch some Railgun next, even if it has less Misaka than I might otherwise prefer...
I've been having a hobby overload lately. Plenty of games to play (between EVE, Crysis, FF13, and the Dawn of War expansion, I'm spending a lot of time playing). I've got a pile of books to read. I've got a small army of orks to paint, build, and otherwise fool with. There's... not actually a ton of anime to watch this season, but I've been letting it build up, and there are several series I want to go through yet haven't found the time to.
Add to this about 10 hours of overtime a week, and my schedule is loaded fairly heavily.
I enjoyed EVE well enough back in the day, but quit when I got tired of puttering around in high-security space (where there's not much to do but mine and run fairly-uninspiring missions) and getting shot at by pirates in low-security space (a nearly-deserted ghetto where players can hunt other players but not claim territory). A friend got me back into it, and I resolved this time to attempt to play in 0.0 space (the "way out there" territories where there are no laws or rules but those enforced by players). Good decision - joining up with a 0.0 corp gives even some of the boring stuff like mining or shipping goods around an extra frisson of excitement. And the profit margins out there are high enough that you can absorb the occasional ship loss, so long as you're not some kind of Norse berserker pilot.
FF13 is interesting so far, if very firmly set on rails. The characters are somewhat hit and miss (Vanille I would happily drown, for example), but Lightning is working for me, precisely because she is not nice. Extremely not nice. She doesn't like the other characters and lets them know it (sometimes with rejoinders that aren't so much jerky as "downright hurtful".) But she's not some kind of super-tsundere, just an unhappy loner. I was worried that Hope was going to be a Shinji all game long, but he pulled his head out long enough to decide on something to do (even if it's extraordinarily stupid, but what hey, even he knows that). Sazh is just fun.
Enjoyed a few episodes of Hanamaru Kindergarten; it's shocking how you can take a creepy concept like Kodomo no Jikan, throw in some Potemayo, and get something good out of it. Think I'll watch some Railgun next, even if it has less Misaka than I might otherwise prefer...
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February 15, 2010
Starting: Nogizaka Haruka no Himitsu
Three episodes in, and I'm enjoying it so far. Fairly standard unlikely-romance story... male lead bumps into impossibly-perfect female lead while the latter is doing something embarrassing, doesn't make a big deal about it, and cute romance blossoms. The "embarrassing thing" in this show is anime fandom, but at least so far, it's more of a prop than anything else (not to mention license for the show to do some thematic validation pandering to otaku, but oh well.) It could have been motorcycles or sumo and the show would still be cute.
Few more panty shots than... well, I'd be lying if I said "comfortable with", since goodness knows I'm inured to that sort of thing by now. But as usual, I wish they'd refrain from the little sister ones! Come on, guys, you've got plenty of attractive older characters to show off (and this show does, heh); could we skip the loli-service for once?
I don't have a deep reason to keep watching, but I enjoyed it enough to keep going for a few more episodes. (Well. It has maids... But that's not a deep reason!) From what I've heard, the writing took a downturn in the second season, but there's still plenty of episodes before I get that far!
Few more panty shots than... well, I'd be lying if I said "comfortable with", since goodness knows I'm inured to that sort of thing by now. But as usual, I wish they'd refrain from the little sister ones! Come on, guys, you've got plenty of attractive older characters to show off (and this show does, heh); could we skip the loli-service for once?
I don't have a deep reason to keep watching, but I enjoyed it enough to keep going for a few more episodes. (Well. It has maids... But that's not a deep reason!) From what I've heard, the writing took a downturn in the second season, but there's still plenty of episodes before I get that far!
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February 11, 2010
Home! And it's still snowing
Even now, big clots of the white stuff are falling outside.
Frankly, it's a little nicer here than in Chicago. It never really got deep in downtown Chi-town, mostly because they have a fairly efficient snow-removal system - the offending flakes were melted on heated sidewalks, plowed from the road, and stomped into a filthy slush on a minute-by-minute basis. Here it's just piling up. (Though not on roads - it's not cold enough to stick there.)
Frankly, it's a little nicer here than in Chicago. It never really got deep in downtown Chi-town, mostly because they have a fairly efficient snow-removal system - the offending flakes were melted on heated sidewalks, plowed from the road, and stomped into a filthy slush on a minute-by-minute basis. Here it's just piling up. (Though not on roads - it's not cold enough to stick there.)
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February 08, 2010
Chicago!
I'm in Chicago, Mon-Wed, on business; we're going to be offering Relativity hosting for clients, so it's off to the Kcura headquarters for training.
Not much to say so far. Our flight stopped in Kansas City, where the snow was really coming down (not enough to stop us from taking off, but enough to make 'em de-ice the plane). It's freezing in Chicago, but there's not actually any snow hanging around downtown; I'm assuming that the heat island effect warmed things up to melt it off, because there was plenty still on the ground coming in to the airport. We're supposed to get a couple of inches tonight, though, so that ought to be fun to trudge through in the morning. (Fortunately the hotel's only a block away from the training site, and we've the promise of good deep-dish pizza to keep us interested...)
Don't think I'd want to live here, though. Urban downtown doesn't do anything for me. Hard to drive in, hard to park in, and I can't imagine walking everywhere in the winters they get up here.
Not much to say so far. Our flight stopped in Kansas City, where the snow was really coming down (not enough to stop us from taking off, but enough to make 'em de-ice the plane). It's freezing in Chicago, but there's not actually any snow hanging around downtown; I'm assuming that the heat island effect warmed things up to melt it off, because there was plenty still on the ground coming in to the airport. We're supposed to get a couple of inches tonight, though, so that ought to be fun to trudge through in the morning. (Fortunately the hotel's only a block away from the training site, and we've the promise of good deep-dish pizza to keep us interested...)
Don't think I'd want to live here, though. Urban downtown doesn't do anything for me. Hard to drive in, hard to park in, and I can't imagine walking everywhere in the winters they get up here.
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January 21, 2010
Video card fall down, go boom
The 5770 card I'd placed in the new machine didn't survive 24 hours; it choked and went stone dead. It has been replaced... with a 5870. The store didn't have any of that model of 5770 when I went back, so I figured, eh, why not spend a little extra for a much better card? (Well, because it's not just a little extra. Guess I should put some overtime in this month... or more like, I already did.)
Today's Supreme Court decision was pretty interesting... the court essentially tore the throat out of McCain-Feingold, so now campaign finance is up in the air again. Interesting stuff, really, opinions all over the place. Take a few minutes to read up if you've got an interest.
Today's Supreme Court decision was pretty interesting... the court essentially tore the throat out of McCain-Feingold, so now campaign finance is up in the air again. Interesting stuff, really, opinions all over the place. Take a few minutes to read up if you've got an interest.
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January 18, 2010
Time for an upgrade
The home PC is ill. Trying to keep WinXP running and trojan-free is getting ridiculous - even being properly cautious and keeping everything updated isn't enough. It's time for a wipe and reinstallation.
...and if I'm going to go to the trouble of wiping everything, I might as well install stuff on completely new hardware, right? So I went down to the local Micro Center and dropped quite a bit too much money on some nice gear. I'll get the old machine working one last time, long enough to get any data I haven't already backed up off and onto the external HD, and then it's format and forget for that box.
New machine will be an Intel i7 860 on a Gigabyte motherboard, 4 GB RAM, Radeon 5770 video, 1 TB HD, and the usual bells and whistles (notably, I don't usually do much in the way of audio.) New case with a nice external SATA port if I ever need to go in that direction, and boy don't I wish I had some of those for the office.
I may configure the old box as a file server, but honestly, I don't know if I have the need for one. Another possibility is as an HTPC in the living room, which might be interesting...
I've opted to pass on the Blu-Ray drive on the new box for the moment. I hardly have any of those now, and I've got a perfectly functional player in the PS3.
With any luck, when I get home tonight, I'll be able to get the new box up and running, with everything moved off the old box that needs moving. The real question is... what to name it...
Edit: Especially when it's glowing an eldritch blue! Darned quiet for as many fans as it's sporting, though. I'm posting from the new box now, which needs about three tons of software installed, and I'm still working out getting Win7 configured up.
...and if I'm going to go to the trouble of wiping everything, I might as well install stuff on completely new hardware, right? So I went down to the local Micro Center and dropped quite a bit too much money on some nice gear. I'll get the old machine working one last time, long enough to get any data I haven't already backed up off and onto the external HD, and then it's format and forget for that box.
New machine will be an Intel i7 860 on a Gigabyte motherboard, 4 GB RAM, Radeon 5770 video, 1 TB HD, and the usual bells and whistles (notably, I don't usually do much in the way of audio.) New case with a nice external SATA port if I ever need to go in that direction, and boy don't I wish I had some of those for the office.
I may configure the old box as a file server, but honestly, I don't know if I have the need for one. Another possibility is as an HTPC in the living room, which might be interesting...
I've opted to pass on the Blu-Ray drive on the new box for the moment. I hardly have any of those now, and I've got a perfectly functional player in the PS3.
With any luck, when I get home tonight, I'll be able to get the new box up and running, with everything moved off the old box that needs moving. The real question is... what to name it...
Edit: Especially when it's glowing an eldritch blue! Darned quiet for as many fans as it's sporting, though. I'm posting from the new box now, which needs about three tons of software installed, and I'm still working out getting Win7 configured up.
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December 28, 2009
Home from the holidays
A very good Christmas in Houston this year. The whole family was able to get together, along with Jeff's new wife Manesha and her brother Manesh. (Uh. I almost wanted to ask their father "why did you hate your children so?" But my dad's first name is Aubria, so I guess it's not unique...)
Picked up the Carcassonne tabletop game (played it with the folks, and it's quite fun, while not taking too long), as well as novels by Pratchett, Banks, Erikson, and Hamilton. Biggest gift was a nice adjustable easel table, which turns out to have had a broken pen tray for the bottom... except I'm going to be using it as a hobby desk for painting 40K figures, and thus wasn't even going to put it on anyway. Funny how those things work out sometimes. There's also a nice magnifier/light for when I'm doing really finicky detail work. (And, of course, I can plop the table down in front of the TV and catch up on painting and football at the same time, though I don't think I could manage subtitled anime that way.)
And clothing, of course, but I actually asked for that; I'm getting old enough that getting clothing for Christmas is pretty nice (and my hobbies are esoteric enough that sending Mom out to get stuff for them is kind of a crap shoot. "Uh, I need a... stomper? And a DVD of Spicy Wolf?")
Picked up the Carcassonne tabletop game (played it with the folks, and it's quite fun, while not taking too long), as well as novels by Pratchett, Banks, Erikson, and Hamilton. Biggest gift was a nice adjustable easel table, which turns out to have had a broken pen tray for the bottom... except I'm going to be using it as a hobby desk for painting 40K figures, and thus wasn't even going to put it on anyway. Funny how those things work out sometimes. There's also a nice magnifier/light for when I'm doing really finicky detail work. (And, of course, I can plop the table down in front of the TV and catch up on painting and football at the same time, though I don't think I could manage subtitled anime that way.)
And clothing, of course, but I actually asked for that; I'm getting old enough that getting clothing for Christmas is pretty nice (and my hobbies are esoteric enough that sending Mom out to get stuff for them is kind of a crap shoot. "Uh, I need a... stomper? And a DVD of Spicy Wolf?")
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December 20, 2009
What do you mean, I won?
Went down to the local comic store today for a 40K tourney. They called it on fairly short notice, and Sunday's not their regular tourney day, but ten guys still showed up with a thousand points and a few dozen dice. Three games later, I, uh... I won!
I'd like to say "well, it's because I read my Clausewitz," or something pretentious like that, but there was a lot of luck involved. (I mean, I did read my Clausewitz. I actually enjoy military history. But Clausewitz had very little to say on the subject of orbital insertion as a factor in squad-level combat...)
If anyone's interested, blow-by-blow is below the fold. Sums up easy, though - I had a great time, I won about $60 in store credit (spent, heh), and I'm definitely coming to the next one.
more...
I'd like to say "well, it's because I read my Clausewitz," or something pretentious like that, but there was a lot of luck involved. (I mean, I did read my Clausewitz. I actually enjoy military history. But Clausewitz had very little to say on the subject of orbital insertion as a factor in squad-level combat...)
If anyone's interested, blow-by-blow is below the fold. Sums up easy, though - I had a great time, I won about $60 in store credit (spent, heh), and I'm definitely coming to the next one.
more...
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December 13, 2009
More boyz pictures
Second batch is complete. Below the fold...
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December 06, 2009
Buildin' boyz, pinning
A few of the ork models I've picked up are an older style, and have both metal and plastic parts. The bodies and giant rocket booster packs are metal, and the arms, legs, and heads are plastic. (I also have a couple of all-metal character figures, but those suckers are staying safely unassembled until I get a good bit better at this!)
The problem with these models is that good ol' plastic glue doesn't work on them. (Plastic glue actually dissolves some of the plastic on each side of the join, making for a fairly strong connection.) For the metal/plastic or metal-metal joins, you have to use plain ol' superglue, which works great if you have a nice smooth connection between the two parts, and something less than great otherwise. Guess which kind of fit these models have?
It took quite a bit of work with files to get the rocket packs flush against the ork bodies, but now that that's done, the joins are extremely strong. (I don't mean to say that they'd hold up against intentional efforts to lever the things off, but they're not going to come off with casual handling.) The joins between the arms and the torso aren't that sturdy. I'm not terribly sure why - it looks like a fairly flat join - but obviously it's not working like one; out of my 16 stormboyz, 4 have lost arms and one his head, just traveling between my living room and bedroom. I definitely don't want to have that happen after I get them painted up!
So I picked up a pin drill. With it, I can drill a small hole in the arm, and another in the torso, and then put a short length of metal rod in to reinforce the joint. (This is the technique they use to fix the broken Gundam model's leg in Genshiken, incidentally.) I was worried that drilling into the metal parts might take a lot of force, requiring some sort of clamp, but as it turns out, the drilling is really easy.
With the metal rods reinforcing the joints, I can prime up the stormboyz without fear of unplanned amputation. This is a good thing overall - while they're not the best unit in the Ork army, they're quite fun (partially because they're quick - they can get halfway across the table to get "stuck in" in a single turn - and partially because the idea of a malfunction causing an Ork to corkscrew across the battlefield and faceplant into a wall is pretty funny.)
Next batch of boyz just got their blue shirts and gloves issued, and after a bit of touch-up, they'll be ready for the metal basecoat. Definitely looking sharper so far.
The problem with these models is that good ol' plastic glue doesn't work on them. (Plastic glue actually dissolves some of the plastic on each side of the join, making for a fairly strong connection.) For the metal/plastic or metal-metal joins, you have to use plain ol' superglue, which works great if you have a nice smooth connection between the two parts, and something less than great otherwise. Guess which kind of fit these models have?
It took quite a bit of work with files to get the rocket packs flush against the ork bodies, but now that that's done, the joins are extremely strong. (I don't mean to say that they'd hold up against intentional efforts to lever the things off, but they're not going to come off with casual handling.) The joins between the arms and the torso aren't that sturdy. I'm not terribly sure why - it looks like a fairly flat join - but obviously it's not working like one; out of my 16 stormboyz, 4 have lost arms and one his head, just traveling between my living room and bedroom. I definitely don't want to have that happen after I get them painted up!
So I picked up a pin drill. With it, I can drill a small hole in the arm, and another in the torso, and then put a short length of metal rod in to reinforce the joint. (This is the technique they use to fix the broken Gundam model's leg in Genshiken, incidentally.) I was worried that drilling into the metal parts might take a lot of force, requiring some sort of clamp, but as it turns out, the drilling is really easy.
With the metal rods reinforcing the joints, I can prime up the stormboyz without fear of unplanned amputation. This is a good thing overall - while they're not the best unit in the Ork army, they're quite fun (partially because they're quick - they can get halfway across the table to get "stuck in" in a single turn - and partially because the idea of a malfunction causing an Ork to corkscrew across the battlefield and faceplant into a wall is pretty funny.)
Next batch of boyz just got their blue shirts and gloves issued, and after a bit of touch-up, they'll be ready for the metal basecoat. Definitely looking sharper so far.
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December 02, 2009
Arts and crafts, green style
Well, it hasn't all been funeral arrangements around here. After a good amount of building, gluing, trimming, filing, priming, and a little painting, I've got some orkish results... (Images after the cut.)
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more...
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November 22, 2009
RIP, Aubria Daniel Kent
My grandfather on my father's side passed away two days ago.
No need to overdo it on the condolences, I'm doin' okay. He was 93, and had reached that point where eventually it would be one thing or the other. It ended up being a stroke, which has the benefit of being quick; a far better way to go than many of his other options.
Dad flew up there immediately, and the rest of the immediate family is going to fly or drive here tomorrow and we'll all caravan up together, to a little town called Lockney, Texas. We were going to have a Thanksgiving where everyone was spread out - Mom was visiting her mother in Oregon, Jeff was going to join them, and Dad was going to visit his parents. Now we're getting the whole family together and then some; just wish it was a happier event.
I've only one thing I can fault my grandfather with - a man who grew up with the name Aubria ought to know better than to name his son that as well. It's little wonder that Dad uses his (and my) middle name instead.
Other than that, though, he was a good man. I can only hope that at his age, I can look back at everything I've done and have as much to brag about.
No need to overdo it on the condolences, I'm doin' okay. He was 93, and had reached that point where eventually it would be one thing or the other. It ended up being a stroke, which has the benefit of being quick; a far better way to go than many of his other options.
Dad flew up there immediately, and the rest of the immediate family is going to fly or drive here tomorrow and we'll all caravan up together, to a little town called Lockney, Texas. We were going to have a Thanksgiving where everyone was spread out - Mom was visiting her mother in Oregon, Jeff was going to join them, and Dad was going to visit his parents. Now we're getting the whole family together and then some; just wish it was a happier event.
I've only one thing I can fault my grandfather with - a man who grew up with the name Aubria ought to know better than to name his son that as well. It's little wonder that Dad uses his (and my) middle name instead.
Other than that, though, he was a good man. I can only hope that at his age, I can look back at everything I've done and have as much to brag about.
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October 31, 2009
Not actually For the Emperor
Posting's been pretty sparse here, since there's been plenty of new games - Brutal Legend, the punishing Demon's Souls, and the surprisingly-entertaining-for-$20 Torchlight. But I've also been spending a lot of time on another hobby...
I'm putting together a Warhammer 40K army.
Ach, I know, I know, this is not making me less geeky or enhancing my chances of ever providing grandkids for Mom and Dad. But it's always been something I've been interested in, except that in the past, the expense has always been a factor. My finances, notwithstanding the lack of contract work, are in fine shape, and the boss has just finagled me a raise (of hearty content, too, and the second time this year); with big upcoming projects promising many hours of overtime, and the bank account sitting fat and happy, I figure I can afford it.
So I picked up a starter box, with a bunch of Space Marines and orks. Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I'm going with the orks. (Masochistic for two reasons - first, ork characters are notoriously lightly armored and get shot in droves... and second, they're cheap, which means to field an army, you need many many of them, which means you gotta paint many many of them.)
I've spent a couple of weeks assembling what I've got, including the Space Marines for testing purposes, and today I primed about 50 models (ran out of black primer spray paint before I could knock out the last 10 and the 5 helicopters). Started painting, experimental-like, and found that I'm not happy with the brown I've got (way too flat for good leather straps), but the layering technique makes for astonishingly realistic-looking green skin. I'll take some photos once I've got finished models I'm not embarrassed to show off.
I've also done some buying on eBay (and picked up another 40 boyz, so my total model count will be over 100... better get more primer, too!) At this point, I seriously need to think about how to transport these things. Big toolbox, maybe?
I'm putting together a Warhammer 40K army.
Ach, I know, I know, this is not making me less geeky or enhancing my chances of ever providing grandkids for Mom and Dad. But it's always been something I've been interested in, except that in the past, the expense has always been a factor. My finances, notwithstanding the lack of contract work, are in fine shape, and the boss has just finagled me a raise (of hearty content, too, and the second time this year); with big upcoming projects promising many hours of overtime, and the bank account sitting fat and happy, I figure I can afford it.
So I picked up a starter box, with a bunch of Space Marines and orks. Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I'm going with the orks. (Masochistic for two reasons - first, ork characters are notoriously lightly armored and get shot in droves... and second, they're cheap, which means to field an army, you need many many of them, which means you gotta paint many many of them.)
I've spent a couple of weeks assembling what I've got, including the Space Marines for testing purposes, and today I primed about 50 models (ran out of black primer spray paint before I could knock out the last 10 and the 5 helicopters). Started painting, experimental-like, and found that I'm not happy with the brown I've got (way too flat for good leather straps), but the layering technique makes for astonishingly realistic-looking green skin. I'll take some photos once I've got finished models I'm not embarrassed to show off.
I've also done some buying on eBay (and picked up another 40 boyz, so my total model count will be over 100... better get more primer, too!) At this point, I seriously need to think about how to transport these things. Big toolbox, maybe?
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October 14, 2009
Brutal Legend... strategy game?
So as you might expect from a medieval fantasy/heavy metal dystopia game, you spend a significant amount of time guiding Eddie the roadie around and hacking, slashing, electrocuting, or igniting anything that moves, when you're not mowing them down in your lightning-shooting, flame-spewing heavy metal hot rod while blasting a selection from something like 100 songs. Par for the course. Even a bit repetitive, honestly.
But every so often, at key parts of the plot, you engage in battle... and because you're a roadie, and that's how you roll, "battles" are played out as huge stage shows. ("Hey, where I come from, this guitar makes noise. Here it shoots lightning. I can't wait to see what happens when we put on a whole show!") The game temporarily becomes quite different - you can still run around and pound enemies, but "winning" the stage requires you to take control of various strategic points, then take the resources they collect and use them to recruit troops, which you then order around with a fairly simple "attack that/stay here/come with me" command system.
The combat's not that hard to put together. Collect the resource points nearest to your stage (you do this by playing a solo, which prompts the construction of a... merchandise booth... sigh), pick up a few Headbangers and some ranged troops, then set off after the nearest enemy-controlled point. Trying to take the enemy army on alone is suicidal, but if you have even a small group with you, it really cuts down on the amount of fire you draw (the computer is not smart/evil enough to say "everyone shoot at the player!") You then plow into the biggest group of enemies, play the "Face Melter" riff, and watch as they dissolve. Suddenly the skirmish is overwhelmingly in your favor, and you can go on to whack an enemy resource point. Once this is done, rinse and repeat, except more and faster.
I can see how some people would have trouble with this part - if you're playing mostly to go kill stuff, it can be hard to think "oh, it's too dangerous to attack that group, I need to fall back and pick up my reinforcements". But if you have invested even a little time in RTS games, it'll be really simple - the enemy does not have great strategy, and once you get rolling you have a resource advantage over the enemy, which usually means victory in the long run.
Overall I'm quite pleased with the game. It could have taken itself really seriously, in which case it would have been terrible. But the writing's quite witty so far, and Eddie's got the right mix of "I am a Bruce Campbell-style badass" and "everything will be fine so long as I remember that I'm a roadie". Could have been whiny, but isn't; could have been a cardboard hero cutout (could always devolve there, too; I'm not done with it yet), but so far, hasn't.
But every so often, at key parts of the plot, you engage in battle... and because you're a roadie, and that's how you roll, "battles" are played out as huge stage shows. ("Hey, where I come from, this guitar makes noise. Here it shoots lightning. I can't wait to see what happens when we put on a whole show!") The game temporarily becomes quite different - you can still run around and pound enemies, but "winning" the stage requires you to take control of various strategic points, then take the resources they collect and use them to recruit troops, which you then order around with a fairly simple "attack that/stay here/come with me" command system.
The combat's not that hard to put together. Collect the resource points nearest to your stage (you do this by playing a solo, which prompts the construction of a... merchandise booth... sigh), pick up a few Headbangers and some ranged troops, then set off after the nearest enemy-controlled point. Trying to take the enemy army on alone is suicidal, but if you have even a small group with you, it really cuts down on the amount of fire you draw (the computer is not smart/evil enough to say "everyone shoot at the player!") You then plow into the biggest group of enemies, play the "Face Melter" riff, and watch as they dissolve. Suddenly the skirmish is overwhelmingly in your favor, and you can go on to whack an enemy resource point. Once this is done, rinse and repeat, except more and faster.
I can see how some people would have trouble with this part - if you're playing mostly to go kill stuff, it can be hard to think "oh, it's too dangerous to attack that group, I need to fall back and pick up my reinforcements". But if you have invested even a little time in RTS games, it'll be really simple - the enemy does not have great strategy, and once you get rolling you have a resource advantage over the enemy, which usually means victory in the long run.
Overall I'm quite pleased with the game. It could have taken itself really seriously, in which case it would have been terrible. But the writing's quite witty so far, and Eddie's got the right mix of "I am a Bruce Campbell-style badass" and "everything will be fine so long as I remember that I'm a roadie". Could have been whiny, but isn't; could have been a cardboard hero cutout (could always devolve there, too; I'm not done with it yet), but so far, hasn't.
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